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Chris Kemmer, Consultant
CK Marketing & Communications
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Ryan Beall
FTR
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rbeall@ftrintel.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 


FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index Continues to Fall in October Ahead of Expected Improvements in 2016

 
Bloomington, IN (December 10, 2015) FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) measure for October fell more than three points from September to a reading of 5.06. The TCI was projected by FTR to decline through 2015Q4, so the October reading was not unexpected. Conditions are expected to improve for truckers in 2016 as shippers become concerned with the possibility of tight capacity in the second half of the year. FTR is forecasting 3% or better growth for truck loadings in 2016, reflecting stronger than expected results in 2015 and continued economic growth going forward.

 

Details of the October TCI are found in the December issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published November 30, 2015. The ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light’ commentary in the current issue discusses the current rate of auto sales and FTR’s expectations on whether the record pace will continue. Along with the TCI and ‘Notes by the Dashboard Light,’ Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, costs, and the truck driver situation.

Jonathan Starks, Chief Operations Officer at FTR, commented, “The trucking environment has slowed during 2015, but compared to recent history it is still operating at a reasonable level. Spot market activity is well below what was seen during the very tight conditions that stemmed from last winter’s disruptions. The Market Demand Index from Truckstop.com is down nearly 45% from prior year levels and is off even more significantly from the highs seen earlier last year. However, pricing on the contract portion of business has held up better than expected. Shippers seem to be choosing capacity over cost savings – especially when it comes to their core carrier base. This is a relatively easy choice given the downward moving fuel markets. The easy fuel comparisons are expected to change in 2016, and that will make it more difficult for shippers to be as lenient on trucker’s base rates. We expect conditions to improve as we move through the year as the market further prepares for tight truck capacity when the HOS, ELD, and speed governor rules are implemented over the next two years.

 

“The main risk right now is the weakness in manufacturing and the high inventory levels. The inventory situation needs to be corrected before we are likely to get a sizable burst of manufacturing activity. Look for that to happen early in 2016. The recent ISM Manufacturing Index release showing a contraction in November may be the early signal for this necessary correction.”

 

To access charts suitable to accompany this press release, go to http://info.ftrintel.com/l/66642/2015-08-26/3bmqkr

Trucking Update, published monthly, is part of FTR’s Freight Focus Series and reports data that directly impacts the activity and profitability of truck fleets. As part of Trucking Update, FTR forecasts expected trends in this data and the probable short and long term consequences. For more information on how to subscribe to Trucking Update, or other publications within the Freight Focus Series, send an email to
sales@ftrintel.com  or call (888) 988-1699 ext. 1.
 
For more than two decades, FTR has been the thought leader in freight transportation forecasting in North America. The company’s national award-winning forecasters collect and analyze all data likely to impact freight movement, issuing consistently reliable reports for trucking, rail, and intermodal transportation, as well as providing demand analysis for commercial vehicle and railcar. FTR’s forecasting and specially designed reports have resulted in advanced planning and cost-savings for companies throughout the transportation sector.
 
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